Forex Risk Strategy – 18TH TO 25TH FEB’26

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers	Bias Framework	Strategy	Risk Plan	Hedge View (Corporate)
Fed rate cut timing expectations Eurozone growth divergence US bond yields (10Y sensitivity) Risk sentiment	Above last week high → Short covering rally Below prior week low → Dollar squeeze continuation	Base Case: Range-to-down unless US yields drop sharply. If DXY strong:Sell rallies near resistance zone. If US yields fall + risk-on:Short-term long but tight trailing stop.	Position size 60% normal until breakout confirmed. Weekly invalidation: prior week high close above = stop short bias.	Importer → Hedge 50% forward near resistance. Exporter → Keep 30–40% open if USD strength persists.

 USD/JPY : - This pair is more about risk control than prediction.

Macro Drivers	Bias Framework	Strategy	Risk Plan	Hedge View (Corporate)
US-Japan yield differential BOJ intervention risk US CPI / yields Equity volatility	Above key resistance → Intervention probability increases. Sharp spike → Fade trade candidate.	Buy dips if US yields stable. Fade vertical rallies (intervention risk).	Never full allocation on breakout. Trail aggressively on upside.	Importers: Hedge partially, avoid panic top hedging. Exporters: Good levels to layer forward if near highs.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers	Bias Framework	Strategy	Risk Plan	Hedge View (Corporate)
UK inflation trajectory BOE stance vs Fed Risk appetite	More volatile than EURUSD.	Trade momentum only. Avoid mid-range chop.	Wider SL (GBP whipsaws). Half size during event week.	UK receivables → Hedge strength. Avoid over-hedging into support zones.

 AUD/USD

Macro Drivers	Bias Framework	Strategy	Risk Plan	Hedge View (Corporate)
China data Commodity sentiment Risk appetite	Risk proxy currency.	Buy dips if equity market stable. Sell if China data disappoints.	Correlation check with copper & equities. No overnight oversized positions.	Export-heavy corporates → Layer forwards if above resistance band.

 USD/INR

Macro Drivers	Bias Framework	Strategy	Risk Plan	Hedge View (Corporate)
FII/DII flows RBI intervention Crude oil US yields Month-end demand	RBI smoothing volatility. Direction driven by flows, not pure technical.	Base bias: Gradual upside unless heavy inflows. If: Crude rises + FII outflow → Upside pressure. Strong equity inflow → Range-bound.	Use staggered hedge structure. Avoid single-level full hedge. Monitor RBI bid zones.	Importer: 40% hedge immediately 30% on breakout 30% optionality (call spread) Exporter: 50% hedge near spikes Keep 30% open 20% via put options

Portfolio-Level Risk Allocation

Pair	Risk Allocation	Style
EURUSD	25%	Structured swing
USDJPY	20%	Tactical
GBPUSD	15%	Momentum only
AUDUSD	15%	Risk sentiment play
USDINR	25%	Flow-driven hedge

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⚠️ Disclaimer

This FX outlook is shared for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, or hedging advice. Views expressed on instruments such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/INR reflect market interpretation at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. Foreign exchange markets involve significant risk, including potential loss of capital. Readers should assess their own risk profile and consult their financial advisor before making any trading or hedging decisions.