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📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Fx & Commodities Outlook: 15th Dec to 19th Dec'2025!!

  • Writer: fxmethods
    fxmethods
  • 5 minutes ago
  • 2 min read
USD/INR – Weekly Review & Outlook

Proceeding Weekly OHLC:O: 90.0600 | H: 90.5625 | L: 89.7663 | C: 90.4300

Price Action Summary

  • USD/INR closed near weekly highs, indicating strong bid tone.

  • Repeated buying interest seen near 89.80–90.00, confirming this zone as solid support.

  • Close above 90.40 reflects importer demand + global USD strength.

Macro Drivers (Global)

  • USD strength supported by:

  • Sticky US inflation expectations

  • Higher-for-longer US rate narrative

  • Risk-off sentiment driven by commodity volatility

  • Commodities divergence (sharp gains in precious & softs vs energy collapse) suggests inflation uncertainty, favoring USD as a hedge.

  • Emerging market currencies under mild pressure due to capital flow caution.

Macro Drivers (India)

  • RBI remains intervention-ready but allows gradual depreciation.

  • Oil correction supportive for INR structurally, but FX demand from importers dominates near 90.

  • Corporate hedging demand remains elevated at higher levels.

USD/INR – Weekly Outlook

Bias: 🔼 Mildly Bullish USD - Key Levels

  • Support: 90.00 / 89.75

  • Resistance: 90.60 → 90.90

Forecast

  • As long as spot holds above 90.00, upside toward 90.60–90.90 likely.

  • Break below 89.75 needed to shift bias bearish (low probability next week).

FX Trade Strategy (Speculative – Low Risk)

  • Buy on dips: 90.05–90.15

  • Target: 90.60 / 90.85

  • Stop: 89.75

FX Hedging Strategy (Corporate / Treasury)

Importers - Hedge 50–70% near 90.40–90.60

  • Use: Forward buys OR Zero-cost collars (Buy USD Call / Sell higher Call)

Exporters - Hedge only 30–40% at current levels

  • Prefer: Participating forwards OR wait near 90.80–91.00 for aggressive hedging


Commodities Snapshot – Weekly Performance

Strong Gainers (Inflation Hedge Signal)

  • US Cocoa: +10.14%

  • Silver: +6.74%

  • Orange Juice: +6.56%

  • Platinum: +5.08%

  • Gold: +2.88%

➡️ Indicates safe-haven + supply tightness themes

Major Losers (Energy Weakness)

  • Natural Gas: -14.21%

  • London Gas Oil: -5.38%

  • Heating Oil: -3.84%

➡️ Signals demand slowdown + weather normalization


Commodity Outlook (Next Week – Brief)

Gold & Silver

  • Bias: 🔼 Mild Bullish

  • Supported by USD volatility & hedging demand

  • Buy-on-dips strategy preferred

Natural Gas

  • Bias: 🔽 Bearish to Neutral

  • Any bounce likely to face selling

  • Producers should delay aggressive hedging, use options


Treasury View – Integrated Takeaway

  • USD strength + commodity divergence = higher FX volatility

  • Prefer layered hedging, avoid full exposure at one level

  • Maintain option-based structures over outright forwards


⚠️ Disclaimer – FXMethods

The information provided by FXMethods is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Market data, analysis, and commentary are based on sources believed to be reliable, but FXMethods makes no representation or warranty as to their accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Trading foreign exchange, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and other financial instruments involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Users are strongly encouraged to consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. FXMethods assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred directly or indirectly from the use of its information or services.

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