📰 FX Weekly Trade Outlooks - Aug 4th to 9th Aug 2025
- fxmethods
- Aug 3
- 2 min read
Period: 4th August – 9th August 2025
Prepared for: Treasury & Trading Fx Desk
Focus: USDINR, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF
Theme: Dollar Strength Fades Amid Central Bank Jitters, EM FX Shows Resilience
📌 1. USDINR (Spot)
Weekly OHLC: 87.4850 – 87.8675 – 87.1900 – 87.1900 (28th July to 1st Aug 2025)
Change: ▼ -0.34 (-0.39%)
Key Highlights:
INR strengthened despite a volatile USD globally.
RBI likely intervened near 87.85 resistance to curb depreciation.
Indian bond yields remained stable; positive real rates attracted inflows.
Crude oil stability and resilient domestic equities supported INR.
Outlook:
Support: 86.95
Resistance: 87.80
Bias: Mildly bullish INR
Strategy: Favor light short USDINR positions near 87.65-87.75 for 86.95 target.
📌 2. EURUSD
Weekly OHLC: 1.1759 – 1.1771 – 1.1391 – 1.1588 (28th July to 1st Aug 2025)
Change: ▼ -0.0171 (-1.45%)
Key Highlights:
Euro sold off sharply midweek after ECB minutes hinted at rate pause.
U.S. NFP stronger than expected, pushing dollar index up briefly.
Risk-off sentiment favored USD in early week; mild recovery on Friday.
Outlook:
Support: 1.1390
Resistance: 1.1700
Bias: Range-bound to slightly bearish
Strategy: Watch for a retest of 1.14; use rallies to 1.1650 for shorts.
📌 3. GBPUSD
Weekly OHLC: 1.3428 – 1.3453 – 1.3142 – 1.3279 (28th July to 1st Aug 2025)
Change: ▼ -0.0149 (-1.11%)
Key Highlights:
GBP under pressure after BoE Governor expressed dovish forward guidance.
UK macro data (PMI, Services) disappointed markets.
Dollar’s strength dominated early week before easing slightly.
Outlook:
Support: 1.3125
Resistance: 1.3450
Bias: Mild bearish
Strategy: Sell near 1.3400 with SL above 1.3480 for 1.3150.
📌 4. USDCHF
Weekly OHLC: 0.7959 – 0.8172 – 0.7945 – 0.8041(28th July to 1st Aug 2025)
Change: ▲ +0.0082 (+1.03%)
Key Highlights:
Strong bounce in USDCHF as CHF lost some haven appeal.
SNB unlikely to hike further; inflation data softer.
Technical rejection seen at 0.8170–0.8200 levels.
Outlook:
Support: 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8200
Bias: Bullish unless below 0.7950
Strategy: Buy dips to 0.7980–0.8000 zone targeting 0.8150+.
🔍 Trade Ideas Summary
Pair | Direction | Entry Zone | Target | Stop Loss |
USDINR | Short | 87.65–87.75 | 86.95 | 87.90 |
EURUSD | Short on Rise | 1.1640–1.1680 | 1.1400 | 1.1725 |
GBPUSD | Short | 1.3375–1.3425 | 1.3150 | 1.3470 |
USDCHF | Buy on Dip | 0.7980–0.8000 | 0.8150 | 0.7930 |
📆 Upcoming Events to Watch (Next Week)
Aug 13: US CPI
Aug 14: India CPI & IIP
Aug 15: Eurozone GDP Estimate
📞 For Further Trade Insights, Reach Out To Us
Location: Treasury Division, Fxmethods, New Delhi💼
Desk Hours: Mon–Fri | 8:30 AM – 6:30 PM IST
“Stay informed. Stay ahead.”
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