📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Outlook: 10th to 17th Nov'25 !!
- fxmethods
- Nov 9, 2025
- 3 min read
Indian Markets & Global Macro Overview
Period: Week Ended – 08 November 2025
Projection Period: 10th to 17th November 2025
Prepared by: FxMethods Treasury Research Team
Indian Rupee Performance : Week Ended – 08 November 2025
Pair | Open | High | Low | Close | WoW % |
USD/INR | 88.77 | 88.80 | 88.3925 | 88.67 | ▼0.12% |
Implied Volatility (%) : Week Ended – 08 November 2025
Tenor | 1M | 3M | 6M | 9M | 12M |
USD/INR | 3.70 | 3.65 | 3.69 | 3.73 | 3.80 |
Indian Bonds & Equity Snapshot : Week Ended – 08 November 2025
Instrument | Yield | WoW Change |
India 10Y | 6.521% | ▼0.12% |
India 5Y | 6.152% | ▼0.34% |
India 2Y | 5.76% | ▲0.45% |
India VIX | 12.56 | ▲3.4% |
Nifty 50 | 25,492.30 | ▼0.9% |
Commentary: The Indian Rupee remained largely range-bound amid softening U.S. Treasury yields and stable crude oil prices. RBI’s subtle intervention helped prevent sharp volatility as USD demand from oil importers capped gains.
➡️ Vols remained subdued, suggesting calm short-term positioning. Any uptick in U.S. CPI or Fed rhetoric could lift vols next week.
USDINR Projection: 10th to 17th Nov'25.
Expected Range: 88.40 – 88.90
Bias: Mildly Bearish
Drivers: U.S. inflation data, RBI liquidity operations, crude price stability.
Takeaway:
The short-end (2Y) yield spiked on expectations of near-term liquidity tightening.
Long-end softened amid easing crude and benign inflation outlook.
Equity markets corrected mildly as global risk sentiment turned cautious.
Volatility picked up slightly, reflecting profit-booking and global macro unease.
Major Weekly Forex Movers
Top Gainers Top Losers
Pair | % Move |
EUR/NZD | +2.04% |
GBP/NZD | +1.90% |
EUR/AUD | +1.14% |
GBP/AUD | +1.00% |
AUD/NZD | +0.93% |
Pair | % Move |
ETH/USD | -11.18% |
BTC/EUR | -6.94% |
BTC/USD | -6.64% |
NZD/JPY | -2.18% |
NZD/USD | -1.66% |
FX Insight:
The Kiwi (NZD) was the weakest across G10 as dovish RBNZ expectations weighed.
EUR and GBP outperformed amid ECB/Fed divergence.
Crypto faced sharp corrections after a strong run-up, led by profit-taking and ETF outflow
Commodity Futures Weekly Snapshot
🔩 Metals
Winner | % | Loser | % |
Gold | +0.48% | Palladium | -3.08% |
Zinc | +0.38% | Copper | -2.98% |
Gold gained on softer U.S. yields; industrial metals fell on weak Chinese demand signals.
🌾 Agriculture
Winner | % | Loser | % |
US Coffee C | +4.02% | Live Cattle | -6.45% |
London Coffee | +2.38% | Orange Juice | -3.94% |
Soybean Oil | +2.05% | Feeder Cattle | -3.71% |
🌱 Coffee and oilseeds rallied on supply concerns in Brazil, while livestock prices plunged amid rising feed costs.
⚡ Energy
Winner | % | Loser | % |
Natural Gas | +4.73% | Crude Oil WTI | -2.70% |
Heating Oil | +2.74% | Brent Oil | -2.21% |
Natural Gas spiked on early winter forecasts; Oil softened as inventory builds and Middle East risk premium eased.
FXMethods Treasury – Upcoming Week Projection (10th to 17th November 2025)
USDINR Projection:
Expected Range: 88.40 – 88.90
Bias: Mildly Bearish
Drivers: U.S. inflation data, RBI liquidity operations, crude price stability.
Bonds:
10Y yield likely to hover near 6.50%–6.55%.
Watch for RBI auction results and CPI data.
Equities:
Short-term consolidation in Nifty near 25,200–25,800 zone.
Sectoral rotation into banking & FMCG expected.
Commodities:
Gold may test $2,420/oz resistance if yields soften further.
Crude likely range-bound between $76–80/bbl unless OPEC signals cuts.
Global Cues to Watch:
U.S. CPI & Fed commentary
China trade & inflation data
OPEC monthly report
India CPI & IIP data
Treasury Strategy Note
“Maintain a defensive hedge stance for near-term USD/INR exposures. Favor rolling short-tenor forwards while monitoring volatility for cost efficiency.”
Prepared by:
FxMethods Treasury Research Data as of 08-Nov-2025.
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