📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Outlook: 24th to 28th Nov'25 !!

USDINR – Weekly Performance Snapshot

USDINR Previous week (17^th to 21^st Nov’2025) :Open: 88.705High: 89.7325Low: 88.4175Close: 89.6425

The pair exhibited a strong bullish close, marking a decisive upside move after testing sub‑89.50 levels. The weekly candle structure indicates renewed USD strength supported by global macro flows.

The US Dollar retained dominance as treasury yields firmed and economic data supported a higher‑for‑longer interest rate narrative. Safe‑haven demand also favored USD and JPY, though JPY underperformed versus USD and GBP due to carry flows.

USDINR Technical Structure

• Bias: Bullish

• Weekly close well above 89.50 signals continuation of upward momentum.

• A sustained break above 89.80 may open the door towards 90.20–90.40.

• Immediate support: 89.10, major support: 88.55.

• DXY strength and RBI intervention patterns will remain key drivers.

Bias & Levels for 24th – 28th Nov 2025

USDINR (Spot)

• Bias: Buy-on-dips

• Buy Zone: 89.05–89.20

• Upside Targets: 89.80 → 90.20

• Stop Loss: Below 88.90

Positioning Guidelines

• Prefer USD‑long strategies across major pairs until DXY weakens below key levels.

• INR to remain in a broad 88.50–90.20 range with upward bias.

• Maintain light leveraged positions due to event‑risk week ahead.

• Watch for RBI absorption/intervention around psychological levels.

• Avoid aggressive short USD trades until global risk sentiment stabilizes.

Risk Notes

• This report reflects the technical and directional stance as interpreted by FxMethods Treasury Desk and is subject to change based on macro releases.

• Key risks: US economic data surprises, RBI intervention intensity, geopolitical flare‑ups, and commodity volatility.

• Traders should maintain proper stop‑loss discipline given rising global volatility.

EUR/USD - Weekly

• The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to face a weak growth backdrop in the Euro-area as inflation is gradually easing.

• Recent data show mixed Eurozone signals: economic momentum is soft, which limits the euro’s upside.

• Meanwhile the US dollar remains firm on resilient US data and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations — this places headwinds on the euro.

• Micro news to watch: Key upcoming Euro-area releases (GDP, HICP inflation, retail sales) will act as triggers for EUR/USD movement.

Trade implications:

With the euro facing weak underlying fundamentals and the USD strong, a bearish tactical bias looks appropriate — unless the Eurozone delivers a strong surprise. The risk of a “sell on euro strength” scenario is higher than a trend change to euro bullish.

Technical Levels & Trade Projection

Key Levels for EUR/USD:

• Resistance: ~ 1.1560-1.1600 (area of short-term caps)

• Support: ~ 1.1450-1.1400 (next meaningful floor)

• Immediate trade zone: 1.1510–1.1550

Trade Projection (for the week):

• Bias: Bearish on EUR/USD

• Entry: Consider selling around 1.1550–1.1560 if the pair rallies into that zone and shows weakness/resistance.

• Target: 1.1450 first; then extension towards 1.1400 if momentum accelerates.

• Stop-Loss: Above 1.1600 (for example ~ 1.1620) to protect against a reversal surprise.

• Risk Management: Moderately sized position given the data risk ahead; be ready to scale back if Eurozone data surprises to the upside.

Trigger Events to Monitor

• Eurozone inflation (HICP) release

• Eurozone GDP / economic growth data

• Retail sales / consumer sentiment in Euro-area

• US macro releases (which indirectly affect EUR/USD via USD strength)

USD/JPY - Weekly

• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has signalled that the timing of a rate hike is under discussion, citing that the weak yen is “feeding into import costs and inflation.”

• Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance (Japan) (MoF) has warned of possible intervention if the yen’s decline becomes disorderly.

• Japan approved a large ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package, increasing concerns about fiscal pressures: that tends to weigh on the yen.

• On the USD side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains firmly on the radar for markets: a strong USD environment supports USD/JPY.

• Tokyo inflation (e.g., Tokyo CPI) and Japanese wage/unemployment numbers will be key, as they influence BoJ’s rate considerations.

• Intervention rhetoric from Japanese authorities: any escalated hints will trigger yen strength.

• US data: inflation, retail sales, labor market — because USD strength drives USD/JPY.

  
  

Bottom line: The yen remains under pressure structurally (weak fiscal, large stimulus, carry flows). But there is a “watch-for reversal” risk if data points surprise or intervention gets signalled. Thus, the primary bias is weak yen / higher USD/JPY, with caution around possible pullbacks.

Technical Levels & Trade Projection

• Resistance: ~ 157.50 – 158.00 (near recent highs).

• Major Resistance Zone: ~ 159.00 – 160.00 (psychological, and intervention zone)

• Support: ~ 155.50 – 155.00 (near recent consolidation)

• Lower Support Bucket: ~ 153.00-154.00 (if pullback deepens)

Trade Projection for the Week

• Bias: Bullish on USD/JPY (i.e., expect yen weakness / USD strength)

• Preferred Entry: Consider long positions on dips into the support zone ~155.50-155.00 if the pair shows signs of holding there.

• Target: First target near ~157.50-158.00. If momentum carries and no intervention signal emerges → extension toward ~159.00-160.00.

• Stop-Loss: Protect long trades if price breaks below ~154.50 (i.e., below support bucket).

• Alternative scenario (pullback): If intervention rhetoric intensifies or Japanese data surprises positively → a short-term pullback toward ~154.00-153.00 is possible. In that case, one could consider shorting into strength at 157.00-158.00 with targets back to ~155.00.

Risk Considerations & Monitoring

• Risk of intervention: If USD/JPY approaches 160.00 and authorities act, yen could strengthen rapidly (short squeeze risk).

• Data surprises: Strong Japanese inflation/wages could support the yen (weaker USD/JPY). Weak Japanese data or stronger US data reinforce the bullish USD/JPY bias.

• Carry unwind risk: Yen is used as a funding currency – any sudden risk-off or forced unwind could flip the move.

• Liquidity & global flows: USD strength remains correlated with risk off or higher yields; so shifts in global risk sentiment matter.

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