🌐 Global Markets Newsletter | Midweek Update – Wednesday

Macro Overview:

Asian currencies traded mostly flat on Wednesday as markets remained entrenched in risk-averse sentiment amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The heightened volatility has kept investors on edge, limiting regional currency movements.

Adding to the caution, the Federal Reserve's policy stance remains a key focus as traders await the conclusion of its latest meeting. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is weighing on market sentiment, with a looming early-July deadline for potential tariff actions by former President Donald Trump. Japanese trade data released earlier in the day highlighted the economic strains from persistent trade tensions.

🔄 FX Markets Update:

USD/INR The pair opened firm at 86.37/38, maintaining bullish momentum. Key near-term resistance is noted at 86.45/46, with support levels firm around 86.05–86.15. If the bullish momentum persists, USDINR may test the medium-term resistance zone at 86.88–87.05.

📈 Intraday Strategy: Buy on Dip

EUR/USD The pair retains its bullish bias, though it has been trading below the 5-day moving average for several sessions. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1537 (5MA), while support lies near 1.1421 (Donchian mid-channel).

⚡ Energy Markets: Volatility on the Rise

The Iran–Israel conflict continues to fuel heightened volatility in global energy markets, with the U.S. playing a pivotal role in momentum buildup. Weekly performance reflects significant price surges across energy commodities:

• Brent Crude: +10.05%

• WTI Crude Oil: +9.97%

• Heating Oil: +14.25%

• London Gas Oil: +14.67%

• Natural Gas: +10.46%

🌾 Agricultural Commodities: Supply Chain Concerns Mount

Grain and soft commodities are experiencing increased price fluctuations amid transport and logistics disruptions tied to ongoing geopolitical instability.

Weekly Performance – Grain & Soft Commodities:

Gainers:

• US Soybean Oil: +14.79%

• London Wheat: +2.25%

• US Wheat: +3.04%

Decliners:

• US Soybean Meal: -3.25%

• Oats: -1.95%

• Orange Juice, Coffee, Sugar: Under significant downside pressure

📌 Summary: Markets are navigating a complex mix of geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic data. Traders should maintain a cautious stance, watch for central bank signals, and be prepared for sharp movements, especially in energy and agricultural segments.