📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Outlook: 6th to 10th OCT'25
- fxmethods
- Oct 5
- 3 min read
Executive Summary — USDINR
Last week markets were driven by mixed macro flows: FIIs remained net sellers while DIIs continued heavy buying in September. USD/INR closed the week near 88.7750 after a tight weekly range. Short-term implied volatility is low but term structure slopes higher into 12M, signaling modestly greater longer-dated uncertainty.
Key takeaways
USD/INR Weekly OHLC: 88.6725 — 88.8050 — 88.65 — 88.7750
USD/INR IV term (1M → 12M): 3.20% / 3.40% / 3.51% / 3.62% / 3.65%
Bond yields fell slightly across the curve: 10Y at ~6.51%, 5Y ~6.10%, 2Y ~5.65%.
Risk-on signals in crypto and metals (ETH +9.25%, BTC +9.09%, Copper +7.02%) were offset by weaker oil (Brent -7.99%).
Treasury Desk next-week projection (1 week horizon):
USD/INR projected to trade in 88.10 — 89.40 with a base-case bias to 88.50 — 89.00 if FIIs remain net sellers. Key risk triggers: FII flow acceleration, a sudden move in crude, or global risk-off.
Base case (55%): 88.10 — 89.40, with expected testing of 88.50 — 89.00. Market action driven by steady DII support offsetting FII outflows.
Risk-off (25%): 89.40 — 90.80 — triggered by acceleration in FII selling, global risk-off, or a crude spike.
Risk-on (20%): 87.50 — 88.10 — triggered by strong FII buying or sudden positive domestic macro news.
Desk actionable:
Corporates with import exposure: pay up to 0.5% to buy 1M-3M call spreads above 89.50 as protection.
Tactical: consider small, short-dated options to hedge around volatility spikes; use IV term flattening to pick calendar trades.
Trade Ideas (concise)
Hedge (Corporate Importer): Buy 3M 89.50 call, sell 91.50 call — limited premium, protection above 89.50.
Directional (Spec): If spot closes above 89.25 with rising volumes, buy 1W ATM call options (short-dated breakout).
Vol Trade (Desk): Sell steepness in IV curve by selling 9M/12M call spread if IV stays elevated and front months compress.
Major Weekly FX & Commodities Movers
🌐 Global FX Movers
📈 Gainers:
ETH/USD +9.25% | BTC/USD +9.09% | BTC/EUR +8.34%
NZD/CAD +1.03% | NZD/USD +0.93%
📉 Losers:
USD/ILS -1.69% | CAD/JPY -1.40% | USD/RUB -1.35% | USD/JPY -1.32%
💡 Insight: Crypto leads gains, USD broadly weak.
⛏ Global Commodities
📈 Metals & Energy:
Copper +7.02% (+4.92% intraday spike)
Zinc +4.71% | Natural Gas +4.66% | Silver +3.76%
📉 Oil / Fuel:
London Gasoil -8.42% | Brent -7.99% | WTI -6.54% | Heating Oil -7.05%
💡 Insight: Industrial metals & natural gas rally; crude oil under pressure.
🌾 Global Agriculture / Softs
📈 Winners:
London Coffee +8.13% | US Sugar #11 +3.78%
📉 Losers:
US Cocoa -10.39%
💡 Insight: Coffee & sugar strength; cocoa sharply down.
Central Bank & Credit Rating Moves (Oct 25 updates)
📈 Hikes:
Singapore: +4 bp → 1.08%
📉 Cuts:
Egypt: -100 bp → 21%
Bulgaria: -1 bp → 1.81%
💡 Insight: Singapore modestly tightens; Egypt eases aggressively; Bulgaria nearly unchanged.
💳 Credit Ratings
Slovenia: Upgraded to A+ by Fitch (from A, positive outlook)
💡 Insight: Slovenia’s credit profile strengthened, reflecting improved fiscal or economic conditions.
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