📊 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER – USDINR / EURUSD / USDJPY / GBPUSD -OVERVIEW - PROJECTION - 23RD TO 27TH FEB'26!!

USDINR Weekly – 23^RD TO 27^TH FEB ‘2026

Previous Week (16^th to 20^th FEB’26) OHLC: 90.60 / 90.9975 / 90.5950 / 90.99              Weekly Change: +0.43% (Rupee weakened)

Candlestick Structure (Range breakout attempt above 90.80–90.85 supply zone.)

• Bullish continuation candle

• Higher high + strong close near weekly high

• Indicates persistent dollar demand

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Observation	Bias
RSI (Daily)	~63–66 zone	Bullish momentum
MACD	Positive crossover	Trend continuation
20DMA	Price above	Short-term bullish
50DMA	Rising	Structural uptrend
Bollinger	Upper band expansion	Volatility expansion
Key Level	Resistance: 91.20/91.50	Support:90.70/90.40

RBI Intervention Watch

• 91.00 psychological zone

• Volatility spikes via spot sell + forward buy

• OMO (if liquidity tightens)

If USDINR sustains >91.20 → Expect: Spot dollar selling / Forward premium compression

Macro & Correlated Drivers: US 10Y Yield / Dollar Index (DXY) /Brent Crude/FPI Debt flows.    If  US yields rise + crude firm → INR pressure continues.

USDINR Outlook (Week Ahead)

Primary Bias: 90.80–91.40 upsideReversal Trigger: Daily close below 90.55

Trade & Hedging Strategy

Importers: Hedge 50–60% near 90.70 dips / Add above 91.20 via forwards /Use call spreads (91–92)

Exporters: Hedge lightly below 91 / Aggressive hedge if spike 91.40+

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EURUSD Weekly – 23^RD TO 27^TH FEB ‘2026

Previous Week: 1.1872 / 1.1878 / 1.1742 / 1.1781  Change: -0.76%

Pattern

• Bearish weekly close

• Failed breakout above 1.19

• Lower high formation

 Technical View

Indicator	Reading
RSI	Neutral-Bearish
MACD	Losing momentum
100DMA	Immediate support
KEY LEVELS	Support 1.1720 – Resistance 1.1880

Bond Yield Dynamics

• US 10Y yields rising

• German Bund yields relatively stable

Note: -  Widening spread favors USD.  Key driver: Policy divergence between Fed & ECB 

Outlook

·         Bias: 1.1700–1.1650 downside

·         Reclaim above 1.1900 → Trend resumes bullish 

 Hedging

• Euro payables: Hedge 60% near 1.18

• Receivables: Wait for 1.17 zone

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USDJPY Weekly – 23^RD TO 27^TH FEB ‘2026

Previous Week: 152.62 / 155.64 / 152.62 / 154.98  Change: +1.54%

Structure

• Strong bullish expansion candle

• Close near highs

• Break above 154 resistance

Technical

Indicator	Reading
RSI	Overbought (>70)
MACD	Strong Bullish
TREND	Accelerating
KEY LEVELS	Support 153.80  – Resistance 156.20

Yield Story

• US 10Y yields rising

• Japan 10Y anchored by

• Bank of Japan policy

Yield differential widening → USDJPY upside.  Risk: Verbal intervention near 156–158.

Outlook

Primary: 155.50–156.50Pullback zone: 153.50

Hedging

Japanese payables:

• Hedge aggressively above 155

• Use collars

Exporters:

• Partial hedge only on spike >156

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 GBPUSD Weekly – 23^RD TO 27^TH FEB ‘2026

Previous Week: 1.3637 / 1.3662 / 1.3434 / 1.3436  . Change: -1.47%

Pattern

• Bearish engulfing weekly candle

• Breakdown from 1.35

Indicators

Indicator	Reading
RSI	Turning Bearish
MACD	Bearish Crossover
TREND	Short – Term Reversal
KEY LEVELS	Support 1.3380  – Resistance 1.3520

Bond Yield & Policy

·         UK gilt yields softening

·         Market pricing slower tightening by

·         Bank of England

If US yields stay elevated → GBP pressure continues.

Outlook

·         Bias: 1.3350–1.3300 downside

·         Recovery only above 1.3550

Hedging

UK importers:

• Hedge 70% near 1.35 bounce

Exporters:

• Stagger hedge near 1.3350

Geopolitical Overlay

• US–China trade rhetoric

• Middle East energy risk

• US election cycle volatility

Crude spike → INR, JPY weaknessRisk-off → JPY strength

Portfolio Allocation Suggestion (Treasury View)

Pair	Direction	Confidence
USDINR	Mild Bullish	Medium
EURUSD	Bearish	Medium
USDJPY	Bullish	High
GBPUSD	Bearish	Medium

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THANK YOU

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