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Daily Financial Newsletter Date: Thursday, August 21, 2025

  • Writer: fxmethods
    fxmethods
  • Aug 21
  • 2 min read

📊Fxmethods Treasury Desk


FOREX MARKET

USDINR commenced Thursday session at 87.03 as compare to previous session Pair traded between 87.3125 – 86.91, closed at 86.96. Dollar demand from oil importers was offset by exporter selling flows, leaving the rupee rangebound.


Neutral USD/INR (Bias: Rangebound)

  • Rationale: Balanced importer demand vs. exporter supply.

  • Strategy: Play 86.85–87.30 range until breakout.


MOST ACTIVE CURRENCY

  • USD/ZAR +0.26% – Rand weakened on softer commodity exports and risk aversion.

  • USD/MXN +0.20% – Peso slipped as U.S. yields stabilized, trimming carry inflows.

Crypto:

  • Ethereum (ETH/USD +4.06%) surged on ETF optimism and higher network activity.

  • Bitcoin (BTC/USD +0.63%, BTC/EUR +0.51%) tracked broader risk sentiment.


COMMODITY MARKET

  • London Coffee +3.00% – Supply disruptions in Brazil continued to squeeze robusta markets.

  • US Sugar #11 +1.66% – Ethanol-linked demand and tightening supply supported gains.

  • Feeder Cattle +1.61%, Live Cattle +0.93% – Firm U.S. beef demand kept cattle prices supported.

  • US Cocoa -2.89% – Profit-taking after a sharp rally, as supply risks were priced in.


ENERGY MARKET

  • WTI Crude +0.49%, Brent +0.40% – OPEC+ compliance and U.S. stockpile drawdowns supported prices.

  • Gasoline RBOB +0.22% – Steady refinery demand lent support.


MAJOR EQUITY INDICES

  • AEX +1.04%, SGX FTSE Taiwan +0.90%, S&P/ASX 200 +0.70%, IBEX 35 +0.70% – Gains on resilient earnings and economic data.

  • TecDAX -0.81%, Nikkei 225 -0.47%, TOPIX -0.43% – Weakness in tech and Japanese exporters.

  • S&P 500 VIX -0.66% – Volatility eased, signaling calm risk sentiment.


GOVERNMENT BONDS

  • U.S. 10Y 4.293 (-0.12%) – Yields slipped on dovish Fed commentary.

  • Germany 10Y 2.7164 (-1.38%) – Eurozone yields fell after weak PMI data.

  • France 10Y 3.413 (-0.78%), Italy 10Y 3.552 (-0.92%) – Followed German bunds lower.


🚀 FXMETHODS Trade Ideas – Daily Picks

🔹 1. Short USD/ZAR (Bias: Bearish Rand)

  • Rationale: Risk-off flows + weaker commodity revenues keep Rand under pressure.

  • Action: Sell rallies near 18.55, target 18.85, stop-loss 18.40.

🔹 2. Long London Coffee Futures (Bias: Bullish)

  • Rationale: Supply disruptions in Brazil + strong demand outlook.

  • Action: Buy dips near $3,500/MT, target $3,750/MT, stop-loss $3,420/MT.

🔹 3. Neutral USD/INR (Bias: Rangebound)

  • Rationale: Balanced importer demand vs. exporter supply.

  • Strategy: Play 86.85–87.30 range until breakout.



📌 Market Takeaway:

  • EM FX remains fragile → Rand & Peso most vulnerable.

  • Commodities: Coffee and Sugar look bullish, Cocoa correcting.

  • Oil steady; bond yields softening globally → supportive for EM carry trades.



Thank You

🔖 FXMETHODS Treasury Desk

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