📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Outlook: 3rd to 7th Nov'25 !!

USDINR Weekly Performance

(27^th Oct to 31^St Oct)

Open	High	Low	Close	Weekly Change
87.87	88.78	87.84	88.78	+1.06%

Summary:The Indian Rupee weakened modestly, closing near its historical low as USDINR ended the week at 88.78, up 1.06%. Despite Brent crude remaining stable, INR faced sustained demand for USD, reportedly cushioned by RBI bids near 87.60–87.70, preventing deeper appreciation. The pair now consolidates close to its record high zone of 88.88–89.00.

USDINR – Upcoming Weekly (3^rd Nov to 7^th Nov’25) Projection (Fxmethods Model)

Direction	Probability	Expected Range	Bias
Sideways / Consolidation	55%	87.60 – 89.00	Range-bound; RBI presence limiting volatility.
Upside (INR Weakness)	30%	Break >89.00 → 89.50/90.00	Possible if U.S. NFP > expectations or global risk-off.
Downside (INR Strength)	15%	Break <87.60 → 87.00/86.50	Limited unless oil drops or U.S. data disappoints strongly.

Technical Outlook:

• Support: 87.60 / 87.00

• Resistance: 88.88 / 89.50

• Momentum: Mildly positive for USD, but overbought signals building.

• Volatility: Expected to remain moderate; implied vols to stay near 3-month average.

  
  

Strategic Takeaways

• INR Bias: Neutral-to-weak; range trade between RBI-supported lows and historical highs.

• Trade Tactics:

  • Buy on dips near 87.60–70 with tight stop below 87.40.

  • Sell near resistance 88.90–89.00 if NFP comes in line or weaker.

  • Avoid directional bets around Friday’s U.S. jobs data; volatility expected.

• Macro Hedge: Consider partial USDINR call spreads for importers; exporters may maintain partial forward cover.

Fxmethods Treasury Desk Commentary

“The INR continues to trade defensively near record lows with RBI maintaining a stabilizing presence. The global backdrop — dominated by U.S. data and geopolitical undercurrents — suggests limited downside for USDINR in the near term. A weekly close above 89.00 may open a fresh range higher, but RBI’s hands-on approach implies near-term containment remains likely.”

Upcoming Week – Market Outlook (3–9 Nov 2025)

Key Domestic & Global Drivers

Region	Key Events / Data	Expected Impact
India	Light data calendar; focus on RBI’s potential spot market activity.	Stability bias; INR supported near 87.60–70.
United States	NFP (Nov 7), ADP, and Fed speakers.	Strong prints → USD strength; weaker data → corrective USD softness.
China	Oct CPI/PPI (Nov 3) – barometer for regional demand.	Strong inflation → supports CNH, helps INR; weak → risk-off.
Eurozone/UK	Final PMIs; ECB commentary.	Modest impact; risk sentiment driver.
Geopolitics	Middle East, Russia-Ukraine tension, U.S. election noise.	Risk-off spikes → USDINR upward bias.

 🌐 Weekly Macro Newsletter

Markets showed sharp divergence this week: USD strength lifted select forex pairs, commodities rallied on supply shocks, while crypto plunged amid regulatory fears. Next week may see continued dollar resilience, commodity volatility, and crypto consolidation.

📊 Forex Highlights

🔺 Major Positive Movers

• USD/RUB (+1.32%): Ruble weakened due to falling energy revenues and sanctions tightening.

• AUD/CHF (+1.25%): Aussie gained on strong commodity exports; Swiss franc softened amid dovish SNB tone.

• USD/SEK (+1.14%): Swedish krona fell as inflation undershot expectations, boosting USD demand.

• USD/CHF (+1.06%): Safe-haven flows favored USD over CHF as Middle East tensions escalated.

🔻 Major Negative Movers

• GBP/AUD (-1.44%), GBP/USD (-1.25%), GBP/CAD (-1.13%): Pound dropped across the board due to weak UK PMI and dovish BoE stance.

• EUR/AUD (-1.01%): Euro slipped as ECB held rates steady while Aussie gained on commodity tailwinds.

📉 EUR/USD Breakdown

• Outlook: Euro may remain under pressure short-term due to policy divergence, but long-term gains reflect structural dollar weakness.

🪙 Crypto Snapshot

• ETH/USD (-6.97%), BTC/USD (-3.27%), BTC/EUR (-2.77%) 

  • Crypto dropped sharply amid renewed U.S. regulatory scrutiny and ETF approval delays.

  • Ethereum underperformed due to concerns over staking centralization.

Projection: Expect consolidation with downside risk if regulatory headwinds persist. Watch for Fed commentary and ETF news.

🌾 Commodity Futures Performance

📈 Positive Movers

• US Soybean Meal (+9.35%), Soybeans (+5.19%), Wheat (+4.20%): Driven by dry weather in South America and export demand from China.

• Natural Gas (+2.16%): Cold weather forecasts and storage drawdowns supported prices.

• Cotton (+2.09%), Corn (+1.95%): Seasonal demand and lower planting acreage boosted sentiment.

📉 Subdued Movers

• Lumber (-8.57%), Orange Juice (-8.46%), Oats (-6.23%): Oversupply and weak housing data hit lumber; citrus markets corrected after hurricane-driven spikes.

• Feeder Cattle (-5.76%), Sugar (-3.61%), Soybean Oil (-3.16%): Profit-taking and easing supply constraints drove declines.

Projection: Agricultural commodities may remain volatile due to weather and trade flows. Energy likely to stay firm; softs may correct further.

🔮 Strategic Outlook for Next Week

• USD strength likely to persist amid Fed rate cut expectations and global risk aversion.

• Commodities may bifurcate: grains and energy strong, softs and livestock weak.

• Crypto faces regulatory headwinds, but long-term accumulation zones may emerge.

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