📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Outlook: 13th to 17th OCT'25

Quick Snapshot (Previous Week-6th-10th Oct'25 )

• USDINR (Weekly OHLC): 88.74 — 88.80 — 88.5050 — 88.70

• USD/INR Implied Volatility (ann.): 1M: 3.30% · 3M: 3.40% · 6M: 3.50% · 9M: 3.60% 12M: 3.75%

• India Bond Yields (weekly): 10Y: 6.5495 → 6.5310 (+0.26%) · 5Y: 6.1060 → 6.1460 (+0.72%) · 2Y: 5.6540 → 5.6550 (+0.05%)

• Equities: Nifty PSU Bank ▲1.7% · Nifty Realty ▲1.7% · Nifty Media ▼2.7%

• FII / DII (Oct'25): FII net -213.04 Cr · DII net +11,797.01 Cr

• Volatility / Macro: S&P500 VIX ▲18.5% · Bank Nifty ▲1.80% · Nifty50 ▲1.62%

• Key FX movers (wk): USD/ZAR +1.36% · GBP/AUD +1.33% · USD/SEK +1.28% · USD/JPY +1.07%

• Commodities: Palladium +13.45% · Gold (XAU) +2.78% · Copper -3.72% · Natural Gas -7.83% · WTI -4.38%

Executive Summary — What mattered

1. Domestic yields in focus: Short to mid-term Indian yields rose modestly — watch RBI commentary and primary auction calendar this week.

2. FII outflow vs DII support: Continued FII selling balanced by strong DII buying — creates range-bound equity flows and influences INR direction on settlement days.

3. Crude & energy weakness: Brent/WTI softness and large NG moves may ease domestic inflation prints, but volatility in energy remains a key risk for INR.

4. Global sentiment: Asian equities weakness (Hang Seng, Nikkei) and risk-off moves pushed safe-haven flows; USD/INR retained sensitivity to USD strength and global rates.

Upcoming Week — FxMethods Forecast (Oct 13th -17th , 2025)

FX (USD/INR & selected pairs)

• USD/INR range forecast: 88.25 — 89.10. Key supports: 88.20 / 87.90. Resistances: 88.90 / 89.25.

• Vol outlook: Implied vol likely to remain in 3.3%–3.8% band; short-dated risk reversals may tilt slightly USD-bullish if global risk-off resumes.

Commodities

• Crude (WTI/Brent): Bias slightly lower — downside risk if demand data disappoints. Watch inventory release and geopolitics.

• Gold: Supported on volatility; tactical longs around intraweek dips may work if USD softens.

Market Sentiment & Positioning

• Equities: Range-bound with sectoral divergence — banks/realty outperforming. Options skew may show put-heavy positioning around key indices.

• Risk events: Central bank minutes / major US macro prints and any Asian geopolitical headlines.

Tactical Ideas (Treasury Desk)

• Hedge (FX): If corporate has near-term export receipts, consider booking forwards for 30–90 days if risk tolerance is low; alternatively use a collar (buy put / sell call) to offset premium cost.

• Curve trade (Rates): For short-duration cash, prefer 1–3Y government bonds if you expect yields to grind higher; use OIS swaps to hedge funding.

• Options (vol play): Buy short-dated straddle on USD/INR around major data releases only if realized vol < implied vol and you expect a surprise.

Risk Monitor (watchlist)

• USD global rally (on US yields)

• Unexpected RBI commentary or changes to liquidity operations

• Geopolitical flare-ups affecting oil

• Large FII program flows or index rebalances

Central Bank Rates Variations – OCT’25

Oct 25 -  Singapore: Central Bank raised interest rate to 1.5% (26 bp)

Oct 25 -  Kazakhstan: Central Bank raised interest rate to 18% (150 bp)

Oct 25 -  Philippines: Central Bank cut interest rate to 4.75% (-25 bp)

Oct 25 -  New Zealand: Central Bank cut interest rate to 2.5% (-50 bp)

Oct 25 -  Poland: Central Bank cut interest rate to 4.5% (-25 bp)

Oct 25 -  Kenya: Central Bank cut interest rate to 9.25% (-25 bp)

Oct 25 -  Egypt: Central Bank cut interest rate to 21% (-100 bp)

Oct 25 -  Bulgaria: Central Bank cut interest rate to 1.81% (-1 bp)

World Countries Credit Ratings Updates

Oct 25 -  Slovenia: Fitch Ratings upgraded rating to A+. Previous credit rating was A with positive outlook.

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