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📊 FxMethods Treasury Desk – Weekly Outlook: 29th Sept – 3rd Oct 2025

  • Writer: fxmethods
    fxmethods
  • Sep 28
  • 2 min read

🔹 Market Recap (22nd – 26th Sept 2025)

  • USDINR: Closed higher at 88.72, range-bound with volatility capped at 3.65%.

  • Indian Bonds: Yields moved up; 10Y at 6.517% (+0.43%), 2Y at 5.85% (+1.63%).

  • Equities:

    • Nifty 50: 24,654.70 (â–¼2.7%)

    • Sensex: 80,426.46 (â–¼2.7%)

    • IT sector led the decline (â–¼7.9%).

  • Volatility Index: India VIX at 11.43 (+14.6%) – risk sentiment weakening.

  • Global FX Movers: USD/CAD +1.16%, EUR/NZD +1.05%, NZD under pressure.

  • Crypto: ETH -9.95%, BTC -4.93% (risk-off tone).

  • Commodities:

    • Energy: Natural Gas +9.68%, Crude +5% (WTI/Brent rally).

    • Metals: Platinum +12.7%, Silver +7.18% strong surge.

    • Softs: Cocoa -4.63%, Soymeal -3.31%.

  • Central Banks: Wave of global rate cuts (US, Canada, Turkey, Russia, Asia).


🔹 Key Drivers for Upcoming Week (29 Sept – 3 Oct)

  1. USDINR Outlook

    • Support: 88.10 – 88.20, Resistance: 88.90 – 89.10.

    • RBI intervention expected around 88.80–89.00 zone.

    • Low IV suggests range trading unless US data surprises.

  2. Bonds & Rates

    • 10Y yield could test 6.55–6.60% if global bond sell-off continues.

    • Watch RBI OMO announcements for liquidity signals.

  3. Equities

    • IT sector under pressure, likely to extend weakness.

    • FII flows remain negative (Sept: -₹30,142 Cr).

    • Defensive sectors (FMCG, Pharma) may see rotation.

  4. Commodities

    • Natural Gas remains bullish above +9% weekly jump; weather-driven upside risk.

    • Precious metals supported by global rate cuts; Silver & Platinum may extend rally.

  5. Global Macro

    • Focus: US ISM PMI, Jobless Claims, Eurozone CPI.

    • Fed commentary on recent rate cut (25 bps) will be closely watched.


🔹 Projection: Probable Market Scenario

  • USDINR: Range 88.10–89.00; bias slightly upside if USD strengthens.

  • India Bonds: Yields firm, 10Y could drift towards 6.55%.

  • Nifty 50: Likely to consolidate between 24,300–25,200; downside bias persists.

  • Commodities:

    • Crude oil bullish (OPEC output watch).

    • Metals shine on rate cut theme (Silver/Platinum outperformance).

  • Risk Sentiment: Elevated volatility likely in IT stocks & crypto.


📌 Treasury Strategy – Week Ahead

  • FX: Hedge imports near 88.20–88.30, exports above 88.90.

  • Bonds: Stay short duration; prefer 2–3Y vs 10Y.

  • Equities: Defensive bias; avoid aggressive IT exposure.

  • Commodities: Long precious metals & Nat Gas with tight SL.


✨ Prepared by FxMethods Treasury Desk

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