📈 Market Insights Daily Market Insight – June 4, 2025

fxmethods
Jun 4, 2025
2 min read

FOREX MARKET OVERVIEW

USD/INR The pair continues to trade strong, maintaining levels above both the 5 EMA (85.57) and 9 EMA (85.45), suggesting bullish momentum. Technical point toward a potential test of the near-term resistance at 85.88. The upward traction is supported by the U.S. Dollar Index bounce from its recent base near 98.00.

Importers: BUY on dips recommended to mitigate cost risk.
Exporters: HOLD advised as upward bias remains intact.

Global FX Updates

USD edged higher but remains near a six-week low amid ongoing uncertainty in U.S. trade policies, clouding the broader economic outlook.

EUR/USD slipped slightly ahead of key Eurozone inflation data.

GBP/USD eased 0.2% lower to 1.3516, yet remains well-supported as the Bank of England maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts amidst persistent inflation. UK house prices rose 3.5% YoY in May (Nationwide data).

EQUITY MARKET SNAPSHOT

NIFTY 50Index opened gap-up but is now attempting to find support at the Donchian median channel (24,537). However, it continues to trade below the 5 DMA (24,690).

Strategy:

Sell near 5 DMA resistance
Buy around Donchian median for short-term support

BANK NIFTY Mirroring Nifty, Bank Nifty also opened higher but is under pressure below the 5 DMA (55,670) after a weak close in the prior session.

Strategy: Sell near 5 DMA as resistance holds firm

BOND MARKET UPDATE

Indian government bond yields in the 2–7 year tenor have been rising steadily, though longer maturities show signs of softening momentum. Traders should watch for duration risk as short-to-mid end yields adjust to fiscal and inflation cues.

COMMODITY WATCH

Metals

Most industrial and precious metals are showing positive upside momentum:

Bullish: Copper, Gold, Lead, Nickel, Platinum, Silver, Tin, Zinc
Bearish: Palladium underperforming

Key Trigger: U.S. President Trump’s move to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective Wednesday, citing national security concerns. This has spurred interest in alternative industrial metals.

Energy Futures

Energy markets are in broad-based correction following Trump's unexpected tariff decision:

Contract	Change (%)
Brent Oil	-0.32%
Crude Oil (WTI)	-0.33%
Gasoline	-0.57%
Heating Oil	-0.16%
London Gas Oil	-0.20%
Natural Gas	-0.59%

Sentiment: Cautiously bearish in the near term due to volatile macro signals.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Forex: USDINR likely to retain upside bias. Watch for test of 85.88.
Equities: Caution near resistance levels in Nifty and Bank Nifty.
Bonds: Rising yields in the belly of the curve – duration adjustments recommended.
Commodities: Metals remain supported; energy faces near-term correction pressure.