📈 Market Insights DailyDate: Monday, May 26, 2025 Edition: Currency | Equities | Commodities

🇮🇳 USD/INR – Rupee Holds Ground After Stellar Rally

The Indian Rupee (INR) is trading flat today after delivering its strongest single-day gain in over two years, having appreciated by 99 pips in the previous session. This marks its best performance since November 11, 2022, with tailwinds from:

·         Mounting U.S. fiscal health concerns.

·         Sustained USD selling by foreign banks.

From a technical standpoint, USD/INR faced a rejection near the 100-day EMA (85.58) and continues to trade with a bearish undertone, confirmed by the 14-day RSI at ~47, which remains below the neutral 50 level.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support:

o    85.00 (Psychological level)

o    84.84 (Low from May 12)

o    84.05 (Lower limit of the descending trend channel)

• Resistance:

o    85.58 (100-day EMA)

o    85.80 (Trend channel upper boundary)

o    86.70 (April 9 high)

📉 Bias: BearishOnly a sustained breakout above 85.58 may shift the bias to neutral or bullish.

🌏 Asian Markets: Sentiment Cautiously Stabilizing

Asian indices opened on a soft note, continuing to reflect Friday’s weakness from Wall Street. Investor sentiment was rattled after Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union. However, late developments brought a temporary reprieve as Trump postponed these tariffs to early July.

🔍 Implication:While near-term anxiety lingers, the delay allows room for diplomatic negotiation, offering short-term support to regional equities and calming global risk-off flows.

🛢️ Crude Oil: Rangebound Amid Trade and Supply Signals

Oil prices nudged higher in early Asian trading as Trump’s tariff postponement helped ease fears of a trade-related demand slowdown. However, the upside remains capped due to:

·         OPEC+ chatter on increasing output in July.

·         Potential return of Iranian oil exports, should nuclear talks progress.

🧠 Market Takeaway:While the easing of trade tensions is a modest positive for global demand expectations, oversupply risks — particularly from Iran and OPEC+ — may limit any sustained upside in crude prices.

📌 Summary Dashboard

Asset	Current Trend	Key Levels	Bias
USD/INR	Bearish / Flat	S: 85.00 / 84.84 / 84.05	Bearish
		R: 85.58 / 85.80 / 86.70
Brent Crude	Rangebound	R: $84.00 / S: $80.50	Neutral
Asian Equities	Weak Caution	—	Cautiously Bearish

For deeper technical charts, algo-trigger levels, or macro event previews, feel free to contact or reply to this newsletter.

📌 This commentary is for informational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.