Fxmethods Treasury Desk— Daily Market – 4th September’25

Indian Rupee & RBI Update

USD/INR trading around 88.00, new record high (88.3125-88.3225). RBI repo rate at 5.50% (Aug MPC), stance neutral, focus on inflation &liquidity.

Two key slabs 5% & 18%, 28% removed, 40% special slab for luxury / sin goods. Goods rate cuts from Sep22, 2025; services phased.

Brent ~$67/bbl, WTI ~$63–64. Hovering near 1-month highs ahead of OPEC+ meet (Sep 7).

Gold at ~$3,494/oz. Supported by Fed cut bets, softer real yields, and central bank buying.

Central Banks Update

Federal Reserve	September cut possible, data dependent
ECB	Likely on hold Sep 11, cuts possible later 2025
BoJ	Sep 18 meeting; cautious amid rising yields &FX
PBoC	LPR 1Y 3.0%, 5Y 3.5%, easing bias

Scenario Alerts &Playbook

Trigger	Impact	Treasury Play	Action
Brent >$75	INR weakens, import costs rise	Buy USD call, hedge imports	Pre-hedge 2–3 months exposure
Fed cuts 50 bps	Gold rallies, USD soft	Buy Gold ETF, reduce USD assets	Shift cash to gold proxies
USD/INR >90	Liquidity squeeze, RBI action risk	Keep USD lines open, roll forwards	Negotiate with banks
GST notification	HS-wise duty change	Adjust pricing/working capital	Update ERP &invoices